Here is how Singapore population is calculated.
Singapore Citizens + PR + Expats (employment passes) + Working Permit holders
SINGAPORE RESIDENTS
this is equal to Singapore Citizens + PR
Property buyer analysis
There are 3.2m native Singapore citizens but the annual
growth rate in 2008 was 1%. Out of this 1% growth, maybe a 20% of this 1%, or 0.2% coming from PR
converting to become Singapore Citizens.
Singapore citizen growth rate is 1%. This level has been consistent over many years.
There is a record 4.8 million people population in Singapore in 2008. It is a 5.5% growth over the previous year.
By looking at the population in ’87 and 2003, there is an exodus of population.
What happened in 1987?
That year in 1987, the population fell. It fell due to total population, birthrates were still rather stable. It is unlikely that Singaporeans left since their homes are in Singapore, therefore we assumed that it is Singapore PR that left.
During 1987, Singapore citizen and PR growth
slowed down, but still growing around1.5% range.
Did property prices crash in 2003?
When total population drops property prices fall. In 2003, there was a drop of Singaporeans and
PR numbers. Most Citizens usually stay put in Singapore. In 2003, it is suspected that
even PRs are leaving Singapore in droves coupled with Expats and working
permit holders leaving.
Why is population statistics important for property buyer?
Foreigners who come to Singapore have their home base and are naturally emotionally attached to their home countries.
Historically, foreigners who come to our shores to work do not have strong emotional attachments to this land. And to obtain a property buyer mortage would tie them down to the country for many years.
Many come to work in Singapore lured by the first world infrastructure and first world pay package. So the “raison d’etre” is first and foremost jobs.
If they leave, They do not have a safety net and they will still incur rent on the properties they stay in. They may opt to leave the country.
From the statistics, it shows that PR population is more likely to stay in Singapore as they are
not immune to leaving Singapore when crisis hits.
How does population growth impact Property buyers and investors?
There are 1.2m foreigners in Singapore. That is 1 in 4 people in Singapore.
This is significant because this is one-half of the equation of supply and demand. This is the DEMAND.
When we talk about the Foreign population of 1.2m people, there are around 400,000 expatriates. From that number, some 800,000 are workers or various types.
For Rich expatriates, we assume 2 people per household, we are talking about
200k units of housing demand.
Out of the 1.2m foreign population, 800k are roughly made up of blue collar workers and maids. There are about 400,000 who are domestic helpers (who
stayed with their employers), while the rest are lower educated workers in manufacturing, industrial plants, factories, service outlets, etc.
Let’s do some sums on this 400,000. Let’s assume there are 3 person per household. They will take up 133,333 of housing units.
Or alternatively there could also be less total units but many of them created demand in the form of room rentals (1 per room), HDB rentals,
lower end condominiums shared amongst several friends.
Our private housing are supported by rental yields.
For the last few years, the growth in Supply of housing has exceeded the 1.5% population growth, the growth rate of Singapore citizens and Singapore PRs.
Swings in Expat population creates rental demand and hence impact property prices.
Does Local Singaporeans rent properties
Singaporeans own their homes, the Singaporean rental market is very small. So the rental market is largely supported by
migrant and expat population. So property buyer need to be aware of theSudden IN flows of foreign population
swings the Rental rates up or down.
Most investment properties are valued based on yield. So even if rentals increase slightly, the property prices swings a multiple of that.
What about 2009 and beyond?
The recession in 2009 will lead to a loss of jobs. Loss of jobs will lead to loss of disposable incomes.
There is still an overhang of properties (condos) in the pipeline to coincide with a recession. This is not an ideal situation.
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