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An angle that I plan to write a lot about in “Betting Baseball 2010?, only occurs in the final 60 to 70 games of the season. For Saturday, there are (15) games on the board, but only 5 meet the criteria of the following angle. The angle is called: “Beating-up the Bad Teams”. And it was/is still is the baseball/primary reason, why the Yankees & Red Sox have such annual success!

Tomorrow, there are only 5 of 15 games that involve one team battling for a playoff spot, and the other is so far out of playoff contention, that they’re just “playing-out the string”. In my humble opinion (at this point in the season at least), with under 65 games left in the regular season, these particular games (to my way of thinking) appear to have a better value from a gambling perspective. Additionally, in baseball it can serve a great barometer to the “character” of a team’s overall persona.

Think of it like this….Let’s us assume that the Cards go onto win their division, but over their final 65 games, had a .500 or below win percentage vs. teams that were clearly going nowhere. What could you derive from keeping records of such a stat? Well in my world, that equates to a team that “plays down” to their level of competition. Or, it could suggest a lack of focus and/or discipline. Both calls, are completely discretionary. But, it becomes a wonderful piece of ammunition come playoff time!

So, we’ve decreased a 15-game card down to a mere five. That factor alone (in theory) should increase your chances of winning. Then comes the process of actually handicapping those remaining (5) games; deciding which one of those remaining five games deserves the most attention is a completely discretionary call, and the onus is placed squarely upon your shoulders.

But, here’s an extremely helpful tip….Seek-out the biggest pitching disparity (of the remaining games, and from a pure talent standpoint), and concentrate your energies towards handicapping that one specific game. For me, that game comes in the form of Colorado @ Cincinnati.

*Colorado is in a gargantuan battle for a possible wild card birth, and Cincy is obviously now a real treat to becoming a playoff contender.

*Colorado clearly has the better pitcher on the mound– Jimenez owns a 2.5 to 1 strikeout/walk ratio. He throws harder. And, gets much better run support than his counterpart.

*Finally, when analyzing/evaluating the pitching form (only using the traditional “L-3 starts), I look for two key variables: A. Does the pitcher/team that I’m about to wager on have at least two “Quality Starts”, over those last three starts. Answer: Yes. Actually, Jimenez has had four consecutive “QS” type starts, and his counterpart has only ONE! And since Homer Baily’s (scheduled pitcher for Cincy, for Saturday night) last QS also happens to be his most recent start, that would lead me to believe; that he’ll “bounce” and get trounced, tomorrow night!!!

STRONG RECO ON: COLO-149 Game starts @ 7:10EST DON’T GET SHUTOUT!!!!

Signed,

Joseph J Tuttle

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